On 2020/21, world coffee production is now estimated by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) at 169.05 million 60 kg (Ms) bags, the 2.1% downward revision of Robusta to 70.4 Ms to be offset by the 2.1% increase in Arabica, to 99.1 Ms African coffee production, all varieties combined, should remain stable at 18.68 Ms, underlines the International Coffee Organization ( OIC) in its monthly report published this week.
Faced with this, global consumption estimates are revised slightly downward, to 167.2 Ms against the 167.58 Ms previously announced, and still well below the 168.5 Ms consumed before the pandemic. As for exports, sales from Africa, all coffees combined, fell by 3.2% over the first 8 months of the campaign, to 8.68 Ms. In the month of May alone, world coffee exports fell. from 10.1% to 9.8 Ms, according to the OIC, but exports over the whole of the first eight months of the campaign are up sharply, to 87.3 Ms against 85.4 Ms over the same period in 2019/20.
Still, on the 2020/21 campaign which is coming to an end, the ICO has raised its forecast of global surplus to 2.3 Ms against the 2.01 Ms previously estimated.
As for prices, coffee was at its zenith in June, up for eight consecutive months. Its average price during the month of June was 42.4% higher than in June 2020. And all the varieties of coffee had the same good destiny, including Robusta: it gained 6.5% over the month of June, reaching its highest level since October 2018, at 85.232 cents per pound (lb).
The 2021/22 campaign, which starts in October, would show a deficit because production would fall in many countries, including Brazil, while consumption would recover. However, the OIC did not quantify the expected deficit.